An Astonishing Sixty Years: The Legacy of Hiroshima

Nobel Prize Lecture, December 8, 2005Game Theory; Conflict; Cooperation

Coping Rationally with Lapses from Rationality

People have difficulty governing certain of their own behaviors, and employ strategies to constrain future choices. These efforts can be interpreted as rational attempts to cope with some foreseeable lapse from full rationality. The philosophy literature and a small amount of recent economics literature concentrate on temptations - addictions, eating problems, sexual incontinence. Just what occurs during a "lapse" is often hard to describe, and whether succumbing should be considered rational or not is in dispute. Here, a number of conditions and behaviors are introduced for which a judgment about "irrationality" will be less problematic. They are important in their own right, and also help to enlarge the class in which the more notorious addictive and compulsive behaviors can be fitted. The latter may then be seen as members of a family not all of whose members are so perplexing.Rationality

An Agent-Based Simulation API for Speculative PDES Runtime Environments

Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS) is an effective paradigm to model systems exhibiting complex interactions, also with the goal of studying the emergent behavior of these systems. While ABMS has been effectively used in many disciplines, many successful models are still run only sequentially. Relying on simple and easy-to-use languages such as NetLogo limits the possibility to benefit from more effective runtime paradigms, such as speculative Parallel Discrete Event Simulation (PDES). In this paper, we discuss a semantically-rich API allowing to implement Agent-Based Models in a simple and effective way. We also describe the critical points which should be taken into account to implement this API in a speculative PDES environment, to scale up simulations on distributed massively-parallel clusters. We present an experimental assessment showing how our proposal allows to implement complicated interactions with a reduced complexity, while delivering a non-negligible performance increase

Role of livestock in human nutrition and health for poverty reduction in developing countries

Livestock keeping is critical for many of the poor in the developing world, often contributing to multiple livelihood objectives and offering pathways out of poverty. Livestock keeping also affects an indispensable asset of the poor, their human capital, through its impact on their own nutrition and health. This paper outlines the linkages between livestock keeping and the physical well-being of the poor, and examines a number of commonly held beliefs that misrepresent livestock development issues related to these linkages. These beliefs limit the scope of intervention programs to promote livestock and limit their potential contribution to poverty reduction. Recognition of the complexity of the role livestock play in household decision-making and of the opportunities foregone due to these misconceptions can enhance the ability of livestock to contribute to human well-being in the developing world

The role of "costs" in political choice: a review

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/67848/2/10.1177_002200276300700209.pd

Simulating complex social behaviour with the genetic action tree kernel

The concept of genetic action trees combines action trees with genetic algorithms. In this paper, we create a multi-agent simulation on the base of this concept and provide the interested reader with a software package to apply genetic action trees in a multi-agent simulation to simulate complex social behaviour. An example model is introduced to conduct a feasibility study with the described method. We find that our library can be used to simulate the behaviour of agents in a complex setting and observe a convergence to a global optimum in spite of the absence of stable states

The Promise of Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the outcome of an uncertain future event, such as a presidential election. Using these markets as forecasting tools could substantially improve decision making in the private and public sectors. We argue that U.S. regulators should lower barriers to the creation and design of prediction markets by creating a safe harbor for certain types of small stakes markets. We believe our proposed change has the potential to stimulate innovation in the design and use of prediction markets throughout the economy, and in the process to provide information that will benefit the private sector and government alike.Technology and Industry

How European Union Membership Can Undermine the Rule of Law in Emerging Democracies

The European Union views the spread of economic prosperity and rule of law to countries emerging from dictatorship as among its primary goals when considering countries as candidates for membership. Existing literature often suggests that EU membership confers significant benefits on the accession countries, and these countries are willing to undergo costly and difficult reforms to reap these benefits. Through strict membership conditions, member states force accession countries to commit to democracy. Drawing on theoretical work in the fields of law, politics, and economics, this article reassesses the conventional wisdom. It argues that, under certain conditions, the reforms required of would-be members could have the perverse effect of undermining the establishment of legitimate law in transitional democracies. Using an agent-based model, the article elucidates a theory in which placing laws on the books around which no societal consensus exists can create perverse incentives for citizens and government officials and may lead to an erosion of the rule of law